It’s been a rough ride in 2025 so far.
Let’s be honest, 2025 has felt like a crazy year both locally and abroad. We have multiple active wars and skirmishes going on. Large changes in political thinking and voting patterns across the world.
We have had the Trump administration challenging the economic standing of the world with tariff impositions. We have BRICS nations threating to dump the Dollar.
Locally, the political landscape is as volatile as it has ever been. In my opinion we have pre-1994, style political events unfolding.
The ANC is under pressure from every side and failing to provide meaningful response, to which they have been heavily criticised. There are multiple scandals unfolding, the chief of which are the revelations of General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, from the South African police force. He claims that politicians are in bed with organised crime and often defeat the ends of justice, in order to profit.
It’s ugly and it also necessary in order to bring real and lasting change in SA. Did we need to go down this road and suffer this much corruption, maladministration and criminality? No! But, in light of the current situation, this ugly process has many benefits to the future of South Africa.
Dark before the dawn.
I challenge myself by asking myself what the end of ANC led South Africa would look like? This is a difficult moment in South Africa both culturally as well as historically. The Nelson Mandela vision for South Africa is severely strained. Our economy is over regulated and is underperforming relative to our emerging market peers. This places economic pressure on the masses in South Africa, which is creating political shifts towards minority parties and away from the ANC, which has enjoyed a historical majority. This is ushering in positive changes and is fertile ground for long term changes which benefit all in South Africa.
Under these difficult circumstances is growth possible?
The answer overwhelming here is YES! Time and time again, we are privileged to bear witness to the fact headlines don’t beat trendlines. Bad news affects our emotions, but our emotions are transient, they change based on circumstances. It’s not wise to make investment decisions based on where our emotions are on the spectrum of happiness.
I can demonstrate this quite simply.
The JSE hits all time highs despite all the local drama.
Despite the local drama that is and continues to unfold in South Africa, the JSE has risen +-17%, year to date for 2025.
The local stock market has quietly done quite well over the last 3 years. This seems overshadowed by the bad news and the narrative that often surrounds South Africa.
There is a quiet hero waiting to enter the scene.
The South African private sector continues to hold the country together, in simple terms. They deserve praise and should also transition into pushing back against the state led restrictions, corruption and maladministration.
The corporate sector is sitting on over a Trillion Rand, that is waiting to be deployed into the country and worked into the economy.
The reason they have not done this, is that they lack confidence. They are sitting on the money because they are not confident to deploy it long term.
What will bring confidence?
Meaningful political shift, which allows to a landscape which is pro-investment and pro-business. There are large challenges and discussions unfolding in south Africa which are looking to shift in this direction. There is reason for hope and if confidence is restored in SA, the investments will be significant and robust. This “tide” is able to lift many “ships” in the economic harbour. There is reason for hope, and it’s actually quite practical. The money wants to be invested, but it’s about creating the fertile ground in which these seeds may be planted. I can see those conversations taking place now.
