ELECTORAL OUTCOMES – WHAT COMES NEXT?

by | Jun 3, 2024

It goes without saying that it’s been a fascinating past week with the National elections taking place, with the outcomes, which were verified and confirmed by the IEC on Sunday evening, similar to what had been forecast, although with a couple of surprises. The ANC coming in below what was expected, and the MK Party coming in with a higher percentage than was expected, where they completely dominated in KwaZulu Natal.

I want to highlight what will be happening of significance in South Africa over the next few weeks.

  • The multi charter party has met this weekend and unfortunately conceded that they didn’t get enough to stay together as a opposition block. This is due to the smaller parties like Action SA, UDM, ACDP, Rise Mzansi, VF Plus etc failing to get high enough voter counts. They may regroup and offer larger parties their support going forward.
  • As mentioned above, the obvious bombshell was the MK Party sweeping KZN despite people knowing what this party stands for in terms of their policies. People largely voted here for three reasons. To “punish the ANC”, the Zulu ethnic vote and believing Jacob Zuma to be a solid leader which represents the people’s interests. The reason why I said people didn’t by in large understand what MK stands for, is that their manifesto and party information was not very clear and transparently distributed leading up to the voting.

What we did see was the MK talking on camera regarding their demands over the weekend, which in summary are as follows:

  • They will not work with Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC, this is a clear nod to factionalism within the ANC.
  • They want to change the constitution to remove the barriers to their agenda of nationalisation of the reserve bank and agricultural assets, and things along these lines. They gave examples of expropriating water assets for public benefit etc.
  • They want Jacob Zuma back as the president of the country.
  • The party tried to suspend Zuma a few days before the election. It’s clear that Zuma’s influence on the numbers of votes, means that he will likely lead. We likely won’t hear more of this going forward.
  • We will hear more in the next few days.

We are likely going to see some further interesting things become clearer over the next week or so.

  • It’s clear that race and tribalism were big factors in this election. Patriotic Alliance and the MK Party showed how ethic and tribal tones came through quite clearly. This will also likely have deeper impacts on a more local or provincial level than on a national level. This depends on which parties agree to work together.
  • Many believe that a coalition must be formed. This is incorrect. Below is a video link to an opinion regarding this with a very valid point. If the DA and ANC form a joint government, the MK will become the official opposition. Worth noting the options presented here if that interests you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KELg9UzIlhk&t=123s

Where to from here?

  • Between now and the 16th of June the parties will go away for negotiations. This is underway as we speak.
  • By the 17th of June, parliament will meet, representatives sworn in, as well as the house speaker and the president.
  • By the 22nd of this month, most of the unknowns should be known.

As with all things, we will keep you posted. I would highly advise not to get drawn into sensationalist views. Let’s stick with the facts as they appear credible.

Please note that nothing included in this article is intended as advice, or are they the views of myself or of Resolute Wealth Management. It is intended to ensure our clients are informed of the process to be followed going forward. We are aware that there are many different ways that the government can emerge from these elections, and we do hope that all of the political parties will act in the best interests of the country and all of its citizens.